Saudi Arabia and Israel hold diff ering stances on Iran; Trump
skeptical.
Saudi Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman met with US President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance at the White House last Wednesday morning. Conveying a message from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi Defense Minister stated that Saudi Arabia seeks to de-escalate the war with Iran and that a prolonged conflict poses a risk to them.
Yet, just the day before, in the Oval Office, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—in a different message regarding diplomacy with Iran...He advised Trump to increase military and economic pressure on Iran, including resuming full-scale war.
These conflicting messages over two consecutive days have left Trump in a state of deep uncertainty. Even as pressure mounts within his own party to halt hostilities, the conflict is spreading across the Middle East. Republicans are concerned that rising oil prices will hurt them in the upcoming midterm elections.
On the other hand, despite Trump's claims, US officials state that Iran is more determined to maintain its influence in the Strait of Hormuz and attack US troops than to engage in negotiations. However, Trump has refrained from launching a major attack due to the limitations of airstrikes and the risk of high civilian casualties. Currently, diplomatic discussions are primarily centered on a short-term agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump Faces a New Decision :
Several military plans aimed at escalating the conflict have been presented to Trump, and extensive discussions regarding them have taken place. Additional military equipment and troops have even been deployed to the region in anticipation of receiving the green light from the President.
US officials state that a plan devised by Central Command calls for heavy bombing over a period of one to two weeks to dismantle Iran's missile capabilities. When asked last Friday whether the conflict might escalate further, Trump emphatically asserted that he had already gone down that path. Last week, during a hearing on Capitol Hill, General Dan Dunford, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged that it is unlikely Trump could achieve all his previously stated war objectives solely through airstrikes. Nevertheless, Trump’s special envoy Steve Wykoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner have expressed optimism about reaching an agreement.
Internal divisions within the Iranian leadership have further complicated the situation. The growing influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has created uncertainty regarding whom Washington should engage with. While Israel advocates for increasing pressure, Saudi Arabia has made it clear that it does not wish to escalate the conflict beyond what is necessary for self-defense; In the Saudi view, it is primarily Netanyahu who is instigating the conflict. Amidst these divergent stances, it remains unclear which path Trump will choose to pursue in the coming days—a deal or a massive military strike.
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